Saturday, April 16, 2016

It's a no-brainer for car aggregators to move to e-cars:Mahindra

With the launch of its electric car e2o in the UK, Mahindra & Mahindra is all set to serenade the British public, says its chairman and MD Anand Mahindra. The task won't be a cakewalk though, admits Mahindra.

Electric cars are the way forward, he says, calling them the epitome of the 21st century mobility.

There are challenges to selling electric vehicles in India, he says, chief among them being the expensive battery. In the West, buyers of electric cars judge an e-car by its total life cycle, he says.

The UK government has forecast that the potential for electric cars will rise to 8 percent of total sales by 2020 from 2 percent now -- which gives M&M a window of four years to up its game there.

A big fan of Ola and Uber, Mahindra says tying up with the car aggregators to sell electric cars is a plan that is underway. It will be a no-brainer for them to move to e-cars, he says.

He doffs his hat to Elon Musk, the inventor who has made Tesla th e byword in green cars. But he is quick to add that when car aggregators look to collaborate, they will go to entry-level car makers such as M&M.

Below is the transcript of Anand Mahindra's interview with CNBC-TV18's Ronojoy Banerjee.

Q: Mahindra & Mahindra is the second big Indian automobile company to enter the United Kingdom. Of course the Tata's did it through an acquisition and since then we know the story. It has been a remarkable success for the Tata's. You are going to go in and you have set up your own wholly owned subsidiary here. Tell us a little bit in terms of your expectations because many would say that the UK Electric Mobility market is actually on an upswing.

A: The Tata move with JLR is a very different kind of genre of entry as you said it is highly successful acquisition but of a brand that was already in the hearts of people in the UK. The UK people see it as an iconic UK brand. Our task is a muchtougher one which is to somehow get the Mahindra brand to be endearing to the British public. So, what is significant about this is that we believe if we are going to introduce the Mahindra brand here probably no better way to do it then with something that is epitome of 21st century mobility. So, that if we succeed in this then the Mahindra brand will be connected to modern, clean energy and to a highly evolved digitally driven vehicle.

Q: The Mahindra brand name will then be viewed very differently from the way you hear.

A: Exactly. Whereas if we came in with our conventional products, I am sure we could do very well with those too. In fact Europe has done well for us, for the overall Mahindra conventional brand. However what excites me is the opportunity to reshape the Mahindra brand through this launch and create a new perception de novo, almost a clean sheet opportunity for the Mahindra brand in the UK.

Q: Tech Mahindra is already here in the United Kingdom.

A: That is something that helps. If you are already known for being an IT company then as you know today it is almost as if IT and mobility are inseparable. They were separated at birth and they are just being joined again.

Q: Are you hopeful then that what we have not been able to do so far as far as electric mobility is concerned, UK will be able to do that in terms of your ambitions for your electric mobility business?

A: We of course came into this field inorganically as well, by acquiring Reva. Reva had targeted India, of course they were selling in the UK too. However when you look back at Reva, its success was in the UK, it was not in India. Since we inherited a brand and a facility in India, India is a home market. You work out all your challenges in your home market and consumers have been very supportive in that. Early adopters for us have been from India.

However I don't think we were under any illusion that given thepricing of batteries, that India would be the dominant market because In dia is still an extremely price sensitive market. So, we needed to expand our market by going abroad where we can in fact come in as you saw today at a price point that is significantly lower than other electric vehicle players here. That opportunity in India didn't exist because we were pioneers, there is no benchmark and also because we were constantly being compared to conventional fuel options which is not right in India. People are not looking at total lifecycle cost of the vehicle. However that takes time.

In the west already ground has been covered and people are accustomed to judging the value of electric cars based on their total lifecycle cost and that will help us here.

Q: While you patiently wait for the upswing to take place in India, many would say that in UK it has already started. So, may be a year earlier perhaps for M&M, wouldn't that have been more opportune?

A: No, in fact if you heard minister Letwin who came here today and very kindly raised a toast to us, he made this point. He said that we are at the tipping point. It hasn't been reached here yet. Sales have doubled almost even here of electric vehicles. However when you look at the potential it is still something like 2 percent of the market, that is scratching the surface. They are expecting the electric vehicle sales here to reach almost 8 percent of the market by 2020. So, enormous opportunity. So, in my opinion we are at right time, right place.

Q: The government is also mulling removing the benefits by 2020. So, in a sense you have that four year window to really make that impact because once those benefits are phased out then you are in a position to sell despite not having any benefits?

A: I agree but keep in mind that at the same time what we hope will happen is that there will be an experience curve and a cost curve that batteries willride down. So, the most expensive component in this vehicle is the battery, which is why it makes it mor e expensive than other vehicles. As you saw what happened in the solar PV industry, that the moment Chinese PVs drove the market down solar almost came to grid parity in India. You can see and imagine the same thing.

So, yes four years, we would love it to have been longer but I think that that the way the electric vehicles are taking off and the way battery production is going up, I imagine that the cost of electric vehicles is on a downward curve too.

Q: Bosch has also announced that in 2019 they will be launching a revolutionary battery which is half the weight, half the cost, so we need to wait and watch.

A: So, we are in a wonderful position, we are agnostic. We cheer on every developer of technology and we will just pounce on the latest technology as and when it is available and not make any commitment to any one particular technology that ties us down.

Q: Is the evolution of the electric car industry also linked to the prices of the oil for instance be cause last one year we have seen oil prices practically hit an all time low. During those moments do you somewhere feel it might have an impact?

A: Only in a very temporary sense. That is not going to be the deciding factor in the future. One is that the operating cost of the electric vehicle is negligible. We told them that driving an e2o or owning an e2o would amount to something like 10 pounds a month for the average British consumer, its negligible. So, you have to compare the operating costs and no matter where oil goes, even if it stays at this price there is a substantial cost relative to EV players. So, this becomes very attractive to consumers but also to fleet owners. For the share mobility industry it is a no brainer to move to EV because of its very low cost.

So, then what is holding it back? It is the capital cost. It is theupfront cost. For fleet owners that is less of a problem because that is amortised over much greater usage of that car, it is a shared v ehicle. Try and imagine when the capital cost comes down, as I told you it will due to battery technology, it is not going to matter what oil prices are. You are going to be comparing zero cost here almost to some substantial cost, no matter what oil prices are.

Q: Will you be reaching out to the Uber's and Ola's of the world especially considering the fact that they are now promising because many say the prices at which they are offering their services is simply unsustainable and perhaps they need to move to an electric car to make that pricing sustainable. So, will you reach out to the Uber's and the Ola's of the world?

A: We are doing it as we speak.

Q: What do we expect then?

A: I won't pre-empt that let us see, I will say stay tuned.

Q: You made an interesting comparison with Tesla and it is bound to happen. Comparisons will be made with Tesla because that is the big announcement that happened recently. You said that you were the tortoise and they are the heirs, why don't you just expand on that?

A: Normally we are very cautious about talking about competition but the electric vehicle (EV) is such where you can't have a launch and not talk about Tesla. It would have been the elephant in the room. Is this a Tesla fighter? How are they going to do vis-a-vis Tesla. Unless you pre-empt that and deal with that elephant in the room directly you are going to have people speculating on the wrong comparison.

So, the point I made here today was that we are eternally grateful to Elon Musk for having turned conventional wisdom on its head and realise that early adopters in the EV industry were priced insensitive. So, whereas the Chetan Maini's of the world earlier did not become Elon Musk because they were trying to get early adopters to adopt because of cost andconstantly talking about operating cost versus the other.

What Elon Musk did was very clever was say early adopters, people who want to save the planet have loa ds of money. Make a car that is aspirational which they don't mind being seen in and then you are going to get adoption, that's what his brilliance was. Now having done that we bow low, we are grateful to him because he has suddenly made it cool to drive electric cars. However as I said today if you are talking about saving the planet and getting rid of pollution Tesla is not going to do that. What is going to do it is when more people drive cars like this. When they drive entry level electric cars. When shared mobility providers like Uber switch to electric cars and they will not do it with Tesla, they will do it with cars like this. So, I just felt that it was better to grab the bull by the horn and say that is Tesla, we are grateful, they are going to help the tipping point and so too will Formula E which is why we are members and I thank Alejandro who was the founder of Formula E and was here at the launch today. To me he is as important as Elon Musk because he is making it exci ting. He is telling people that electric cars are fast and fun to drive.

The combination of those two things will get people interested and then what will as I said turn the skies of Bombay blue again are cars like this.

Q: So, since you made that acquisition are you perhaps most hopeful about the future of electric mobility than you have been in the past?

A: Absolutely.

Q: The evolution of the electric mobility, the regulatory environment in India many would say as it still taken a lot of time?

A: I am Indian; I have lived and worked all my life there. When you say something takes time we just say part of the territory. When it turn around things happen.

Q: When it turns around you will have the first move on?

A: There is huge opportunity foreverybody, first mover, second mover or tenth mover. There is so much penetration left. 1 percent of the market of the UK and negligible amount in India so think of the upside and think of what happens when share mobility players like Uber and Ola start using this. One of the biggest buyer of our cars today is a company called Lithium in Bangalore which is an electric mobility provider. So, mobility solutions providers are going to be the ones who will catalyse the change.

Q: Power Minister said by 2030 he wants the electric mobility to be the primarily the pre-eminent mode of a transportation. We are in 2016 we are still 14 years away. Is that achievable you feel?

A: When he said that I hope you heard us cheering in the background because we were and his ministry has been in insatiable and asking for data and looking at the information available on that transition. He is now convinced that this is doable. He is working with international agencies to help him achieve that goal. So, this is not simply a sound bite that he was giving. I truly believe them. We have discussed it with Minister Piyush Goyal and frankly what is better is that it Minister Nitin Gadkari is also aligned to this. So, when you have two ministers both in power and transport and then the Environment Minister so you have this three murti that has committed to this goal. I think it will happen.

Q: The last time you and I spoke you were very cautious about the pace of while the government was initiating reforms but you were a little cautious in terms of its effects on ground. We have just started the new financial year and there has been some good news. Good normal monsoon has been predicted after two years of drought. Consumer price index (CPI) has come down under 5 percent. Are you little more sanguine about the prospects of FY17 as you were three months ago when we last spoke?

A: I have a much more positive outlook than when we met last that is to befrank. I told you that I was always optimistic, but I was wrong about when the tipping point would come in India. I think things are finally building off that the mythical takeoff point that never used to come. Let us b e honest I have also recently posted on social media that we should not get euphoric about the monsoon forecast.. However, if we are fortunate enough to get a normal monsoon I think that combined with the affect of all the other policies that this government has done in the last two years you could see a level of growth that will surprise us all on the positive side.

Q: For the auto industry the year has once again started off in an uncertain note because the diesel ban still continues. In such a situation you are at the frontier, you are in a sense spearheading that debate because you are trying to convince the rest of the world that diesel is not as polluting as you make it out to be and we are investing, we will hit BS- I in other four to five years time but then is that like an overhang which is pulling the industry back?

A: You are asking me generic questions about the industry, so I am answering you generically on behalf of the auto industry. I don't want to answ er with the vested interest of Mahindra. I have said before and now I am on the record that I respect the judiciary of this country. They have kept democracy alive doesn't mean that we always agree with their decisions. Sometimes when you want to bring change some decisions that come in are a little egregious if you will they don't always take into account the hard facts and so on.

However, as far as I am concerned that is the law of the land we would we will obey it and we will do so happily because we think the push towards climate friendly vehicles is a good one and we are never going to line up against that. As you see our answer will always be to deliver products which will meet the regulations in fact go beyond them.Thatis our stand. So, I refused to be intimidated or to be depressed. I would rather have an organisation that is nimble and reactive enough to respond to the changes that people want and which I hope are embedded in the decision.

Q: Are your CEOs t elling you they have to review the investments owing to this diesel overhang?

A: We will never stop investing. The question is what you invest in? It is simple as that you just change tag and you say this is the direction and this is what we are going to do. We are not waiting for the government to mandate electric vehicles before we board Reva as you know. So, I just hope as far as I am concerned, my advised to my colleagues will be let us not wait until somebody pushes us in a direction. Let us just anticipate them and be ready for them.

Q: Your entry into UK also coincides with Tata Steel wanting to exit. Has that in any way in your interactions here with people in London, has that in anyway impacted brand India in terms of because the unions are up in arms and it has become a big political issue now?

A: It is very unfortunate, obviously but to be honest I think the public, I just got here yesterday but my general sense is that it has been handle very well by Ta ta's and that everybody recognises that they may regret deed of effort and that there are some externalities which are causing these.

I don't think there is anyone here who is accusing Tata of not living up to promises. So, these are just the vicissitude of the business. Some business workout, some businesses unfortunately are threatened by external development. So, I don't think this is going to have any long-term impact on brand India at all.

Q: You like talking about this and lot of us acknowledge the fact that how rapidly the world is changing. The kind of role technology is playing. Only time will tell the impact 3D printing for instance is going to have so in that sense theview is that even a regulations will have to keep a pace with these changing times. So, while you also said at the start of the interview that reforms take time but in India the impression is that even the very obvious takes a lot of time. To give you the example of the goods and service ta x (GST) a bill that was again campaigned by the previous government but seems now it is again run into rough weather. Is there a feeling somewhere that politics is perhaps failing businesses in India?

A: This question as you know has been asked since a beginning of the regime change over. Ironically, for being despite being a regime in which is being led by a master communicator Prime Minister Modi I believe they have done a poor job of communicating their many success. There are many small successes which are all adding up to give us the recovery that we are anticipating. I wish there was somebody who could help them publicise what they have done in smaller areas which are adding up to a major lots of drops of the water in this bucket.

Let us take crop insurance, now we are looking at farmers and their plight. Why isn't anyone looking at the fact that crop insurance could make a tremendous difference to the well being of these farmers? If you look at the way in which the government has handed the public saving rates being brought down. It was very clear if you talk to any bankers and I am sure you did that it was not simply the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that could help them bring rates down, their public saving rates have to be brought down and that was a politically difficult bullet to bite. They did that and they did it very well after one day of objections they have created a mechanism which will allow the calibration of rates in a much more dynamic manner.

That is going to lead to a much more vigorous and reactive interest rate environment. Why aren't these things being talked about? The fact that there is much greatertransparency at the top for companies like us and I have not gone to Delhi, I don't have to go to Delhi anymore. So, to my thinking things have changed dramatically some big moves have stilled to be done. If they will come but this government needs to do a better job of publicising the many things it has done right now.

Q: Last time you said that how public trust in businesses is at a low and that was perhaps a trigger for Mahindra Rise also as a campaign and as a vision for your group. Especially at a time when you see large corporate houses defaulting on their loans and of course there is one person who has been pretty much absconding right now, does that concern you because you are looked upon as the conscious keeper of India Inc and in that sense does that worry you that incidents like these is further going to sully the image of India Inc and there will be negative externalities?

A: You have asked me this question by putting me on the spot and putting me on the pedestal I don't really want to belong to.

Q: Many of your Twitter followers they like the way you engage with them.

A: When you talk about defaulters as you know the Reserve Bank of India governor himself has made a very clear statement that not all defaulters are wilful. You have to remember that one of th e biggest problems or threats to entrepreneurship in India is that there is a very severe cost of failure. We need that bankruptcy law which the Finance Minister is promising. I would like to urge him to bring it into play much quicker. You have got to realise that entrepreneurs not all of them succeed. Media focuses on the winners, there are many losers out there. We should not in any way ostracize the losers. If somebody has legitimately taken a risk, somebody has lost for external reasons or even due to bad implementation, that is fine. That is what business is, you need winners and losers.

There is no economy in which you aregoing to get only winners. My only fear about the current environment is that if you begin to condemn and vilify all losers in business you are once again going to get back to that old mentality, where my daughter cannot marry him a businessman because he might fail. We had come to a point where people have begun to value risk taking. I just hope that this environment does not in any way discourage risk taking. There are legitimate business people who will go into a project and may not succeed. We must not condemn them.


Source: It's a no-brainer for car aggregators to move to e-cars:Mahindra

20% May Buy/Lease A Pure Electric Car Next … But Only 48% Can Name A Model

Cars model3_quarter_mod2

Published on April 16th, 2016 | by James Ayre

April 16th, 2016 by James Ayre 

Originally published on EV Obsession.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory recently released a new report on public electric vehicle awareness — and specifically on the current barriers to wider awareness and adoption.

The new National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) report is based on a study conducted back in February 2015, notably, so things may have changed somewhat since then on some counts (following the Tesla Model 3 reveal, etc).

Tesla Model 3 silver test track photo

Tesla Model 3 photo by Kyle Field (exclusive photo on Tesla Model 3 unveiling test track — more here)

 

The study findings are based on a 1,015-household sample designed to be representative of the US population. NREL is reportedly planning to repeat the study yearly in order to track the growing transition to electric vehicles.

Here are some of the key findings from the study ("Consumer Views on Plug-in Electric Vehicles-National Benchmark Report"):

Vehicle Purchasing Behaviors
  • 60% of respondent households owned two or more vehicles.
  • 53% stated their last vehicle purchases were sedans.
  • 48% stated their next vehicle purchases would likely be sedans.
  • 29% had purchased vehicles in the last year.
  • Plug-in Electric Vehicle Awareness
  • 48% were able to name a specific plug-in electric vehicle make and model.
  • 49% reported having seen plug-in electric vehicles in parking lots.
  • 52% stated plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were just as good as or better than traditional gasoline vehicles.
  • 45% stated pure electric vehicles were just as good as or better than traditional gasoline vehicles.
  • 24% stated they would consider or expect to purchase plug-in hybrid electric vehicles for their next vehicle purchase or lease.
  • 20% stated they would consider or expect to purchase pure electric vehicles for their next vehicle purchase or lease.
  • Barriers to Plug-in Electric Vehicle Acceptance
  • A pure electric vehicle would need to be able to travel 300 miles on a single charge for 56% of respondents to be willing to consider purchasing one.
  • 55% said they would not consider a PEV because the vehicles are too expensive. A majority (70%) stated they expected to pay $30,000 or less for their next vehicle, and 42% expected to pay $20,000 or less.
  • 18% were aware of charging stations on the routes they regularly drove.
  • 53% of respondents could consistently park their vehicles near electrical outlets at home.
  • 51% of respondents would be willing to pay incremental costs for plug-in electric vehicles.
  • Plug-in Electric Vehicle Acceptance
  • Respondents who were aware of plug-in electric vehicle charging stations were more likely than respondents overall to view plug-in electric vehicles positively and be willing to consider purchasing them.
  • Respondents who were able to name one of the top nine best-selling plug-in electric vehicles were more likely than respondents overall to view plug-in electric vehicles positively and be willing to consider purchasing them.
  • New vehicle purchasers were more likely than used vehicle purchasers to view plug-in electric vehicles positively and be willing to consider purchasing them.
  • The interviews used for the study were conducted by phone, by the Opinion Research Corporation. Those interviewed were randomly selected — through a dual-frame sampling design, where the sample was drawn from independent landline and cell phone sample frames. The response samples were all weight-adjusted.

    While 20% (or 1 out of 5) respondents said their next vehicle could be a pure EV and 24% said so about plug-in hybrids, a key factor to remember is that only 48% could name a specific plug-in electric vehicle model. Were the 20% mainly from the population that could identify an actual EV? Or were they largely from the population that knows nothing about this industry (and is probably equating EVs with conventional hybrids)?

    Interestingly, more respondents (49%) said they had seen plug-in electric vehicles in parking lots … than could actually name a plug-in electric vehicle model (48%). But perhaps some respondents had seen cars charging in parking lots without knowing their names.

    While the preferences about purchasing preferences may be somewhat interesting, the important thing to realize here is that awareness of these vehicles is still really low. If over half of the respondents can't name a single EV model, there's a good chance they aren't aware of the benefits of EVs and how viable the options on the market would be for their lifestyle and budget.  Get CleanTechnica's 1st (completely free) electric car report → "Electric Cars: What Early Adopters & First Followers Want." Come attend CleanTechnica's 1st "Cleantech Revolution Tour" event → in Berlin, Germany, April 9–10. Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter. 

    Tags: BMW i3, Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, NREL, Tesla, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model S

    About the Author

    James Ayre 's background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. And where he also briefly considered entering the coal mining business. He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy. You can follow his work on Google+.


    Source: 20% May Buy/Lease A Pure Electric Car Next … But Only 48% Can Name A Model

    Friday, April 15, 2016

    One of the first Tesla Model S cars ever built is up for auction

    Tesla Model S Number 9Sam PerryA view of Tesla Model S No. 9, a Signature edition set to be auctioned off in April. See Also 'We plan to succeed': Electric-car startup Faraday Future officially breaks ground on its $1 billion factory Watch this Tesla Model 3 drive around in public The automaker that sells the most electric cars in the world is rooting for Tesla

    Sam Perry is a Tesla believer.

    He was one of the first 100 people to buy a Tesla Roadster, the electric-car company's inaugural production vehicle.

    Now, he's just put his Tesla Model S — the ninth one ever built — up for auction.

    The trailing digits of the sedan's vehicle-identification number say it all: 00009. It's the 2012 Model S Signature series, which means that it's loaded and dressed in the now iconic Signature Red paint.

    "Elon [Musk] personally inspected these first cars to make sure the fit was exactly right," Perry told Business Insider in a phone conversation last week. "So it's one of the few hand-finished cars, and among the first to come off the assembly line."

    The Silicon Valley investor, who runs Ascendance Ventures in the San Francisco Bay Area, says that he's selling his car now to make room for another Tesla: the falcon-winged Model X SUV. Perry said that he needed the extra space to haul a bunch of bicycles and other equipment "while still being able carry passengers."

    We asked Perry why he wouldn't just park the new Model X next to the S, considering that the latter is so rare. He simply replied, "I don't need two large cars."

    The electric-car bug has been running in Perry's family for generations. He boasted of a 1917 Detroit Electric car owned by his extended family.

    "An uncle of mine updated it so it can run on 12-volt batteries," he said, "but you wouldn't want to try driving it up a hill."

    Of course, the Model S that Perry is selling is no slouch.

    He applauded Tesla's role in kicking electric-vehicle development into high gear, even though EVs haven't yet won unanimous appreciation from consumers.

    Tesla Model S Number 9Sam Perry

    Total sales of new plug-in cars barely made a dent among the 17.5 million new cars and trucks sold in the US last year.

    Tesla first-adopters — people like Perry who signed up to buy the earliest editions of the company's cars — are true believers in transport innovation.

    Perry is also selling an ICON A5 personal aircraft — No. 23 of only 100 to be made.

    His Tesla Model S Signature series is listed on eBay, with bids starting at $9,000.

    NOW WATCH: This woman is one of the most badass aviators on the planet Please enable Javascript to watch this video
    Source: One of the first Tesla Model S cars ever built is up for auction

    Mahindra e2o ElectriCity Car launched in the UK; starts at £12,995 (INR 12.3 lakhs; approx.)

    Mahindra e2o ElectriCity Car launched in the UK; starts at £12,995 (INR 12.3 lakhs; approx.) | Motoroids

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    Source: Mahindra e2o ElectriCity Car launched in the UK; starts at £12,995 (INR 12.3 lakhs; approx.)

    Thursday, April 14, 2016

    Will the Tesla Model 3 Be the First Truly Self-Driving Car?

    Elon Musk has said that people should be able to summon their cars from across the country by the beginning of 2018, which happens to coincide with the Tesla Model 3's planned release date. Elon Musk has said that people should be able to summon their cars from across the country by the beginning of 2018, which happens to coincide with the Tesla Model 3's planned release date. Credit Photograph Courtesy Tesla

    On the evening of March 31st, Elon Musk unveiled Tesla's sinuous Model 3, the company's first "affordable" electric-car model. After touting the sedan's punchy acceleration, two-hundred-and-fifteen-mile battery range, and sweeping, seamless glass roof, he mentioned its base price of thirty-five thousand dollars and told the audience that prospective buyers had already reserved more than a hundred and fifteen thousand of the vehicles, to rapturous applause and shouts of "You did it!" Not one to miss a marketing trick, Musk capped the night on Twitter, with a cryptic thank-you message that promised more: "Thanks for tuning in to the Model 3 unveil Part 1! Part 2 is super next level, but that's for later . . . ."

    Within hours, the tech community was awash in speculation about what more Tesla could have in store for the Model 3. Some wondered, specifically, whether it would be the world's first mass-market, fully autonomous self-driving car. Spurred forward by Google and other Silicon Valley companies, the auto industry has been tinkering with autonomous vehicles for years. Tesla has demonstrated a unique appetite for risk, though, by equipping two of its cars, the Model S and Model X, with rudimentary self-driving capabilities. Musk has also said that people should be able to summon their cars from across the country by the beginning of 2018, which happens to coincide with the Model 3's planned release date. And, after the announcement, Bloomberg's Tom Randall noted that Musk kept referring to the Model 3's "steering system" or "steering controls," rather than its steering wheel, and that he'd said that the system shown at the Model 3 lau nch wasn't final. But perhaps the most compelling evidence that Tesla's Model 3 may have significant autonomous capabilities lies in the company's unique technological approach, which could allow it to achieve a "hands off" driving experience at a fraction of the cost of its competitors—including Google, the heavyweight in the field. (A disclosure: one of the authors, Levi Tillemann, owns stock in Tesla.)

    To understand why Tesla's strategy may give it a decisive advantage, it helps to know the history of its main competitor's approach. As Burkhard Bilger detailed in this magazine in 2013, the research began with a small group of Bay Area roboticists, led by Google's Anthony Levandowski and Sebastian Thrun, who bought a Prius, rejiggered its electronic controls, and installed a laser-based system, known as lidar (for light detection and ranging), that measures the physical distance between the car and the objects around it. At first, they worked on the vehicle as a side project. But then Google brought the endeavor in-house and gave it a basically unlimited budget.

    There's a very good reason Google and other manufacturers have bet on lidar: by repeatedly firing pulses of laser light in all directions and timing their return, lidar can create a precise three-dimensional map of the car's surroundings, accurate down to a couple of centimetres. This precision allowed the Google car to progress much faster than most people expected. (Google demonstrated these advances in a 2012 YouTube video featuring Steve Mahan, who is legally blind, as he went about his daily routine in an autonomous Google car.)

    But while much of the tech community marvelled at Google's achievement, Musk thought that lidar was too expensive. (A top-notch system costs about eighty thousand dollars.) He believed that Tesla could get the same results with a cheaper suite of sensors. Musk first revealed that Tesla was considering adding autonomous-driving features in 2013. Tesla's ultimate strategy was to bypass lidar with a combination of simple cameras, radar (which uses radio waves to estimate distances to objects that are farther away), and ultrasound (which uses sound waves to estimate the distance to objects in the immediate vicinity). The cameras, which aren't much different from the ones used in smartphones, produce a video stream that is then analyzed by algorithms trained to recognize objects. Tesla's key partner for the camera system is Mobileye, an Israeli computer-vision company which claims that its software can detect vehicles up to two hundred and thirt y feet away using a single standard-resolution camera—all while adding only a thousand dollars to the price of a car.

    In October of 2014, Tesla began offering its Model S and X customers a "technology package," which included this sensor array and cost about four thousand dollars. The equipment allowed the company to record drivers' movements, unless they opted out of the tracking, and—most important—to start amassing an enormous trove of data. A year later, it remotely activated its "Autopilot" software on tens of thousands of these cars. Suddenly, drivers had the ability to engage some limited autonomous functions, including dynamic cruise control (pegging your car's speed to the speed of the car in front of you), course alignment inside highway lanes, and on-command lane-changing. Some drivers were unnerved by the Autopilot functions, and cars occasionally swerved or drove off the road. But many of Tesla's tech-tolerant early adopters relished the new features.

    Autopilot also gave Tesla access to tens of thousands of "expert trainers," as Musk called them. When these de-facto test drivers overrode the system, Tesla's sensors and learning algorithms took special note. The company has used its growing data set to continually improve the autonomous-driving experience for Tesla's entire fleet. By late 2015, Tesla was gathering about a million miles' worth of driving data every day.

    To understand how commanding a lead this gives the company in the race for real-world autonomous-driving data, consider the comparably small number of lidar-based autonomous vehicles—all of them test cars—that some of its competitors have on the road. California, where much of the research on self-driving cars is taking place, requires companies to register their autonomous vehicles, so we know that currently Nissan has just four such cars on the road in the state, while Mercedes has five. Google has almost eighty registered in the state (though not all of them are in service); it is also doing limited testing in Arizona, Texas, and Washington. Ford announced earlier this year that it was adding twenty new cars to its test fleet, giving it thirty vehicles on the road in Arizona, California, and Michigan, which it says is the largest fleet of any traditional automaker. By comparison, Tesla has sold roughly thirty-five thousand cars in the U.S.  since October of 2014. The quality of the data that these vehicles are producing is unlikely to be as rich as the information the lidar cars are providing, but Tesla's vastly superior fleet size means that its autonomous cars can rack up as much driving experience every day or two as Google's cars have cumulatively.

    With its approach, Tesla has been making a classic information-age wager: that software and processing can beat hardware. Lidar systems will no doubt continue to get cheaper: in February, Velodyne, the world's preëminent civilian lidar company, announced the release of a pared-down system costing about eight thousand dollars. But, even so, it will take time for suppliers to ramp up production to the point that carmakers can reliably buy lidar devices at a lower cost and deploy them widely. Software, by contrast, can be improved cheaply and continually, and can be updated remotely in an entire fleet of vehicles overnight. The genius of this system is that Tesla doesn't have to decide up front whether the Model 3 will be self-driving—it can just install the necessary hardware and make the cars autonomous at a later date.

    This could prove particularly important given the profound regulatory and liability challenges that lie ahead for any company looking to create a fully autonomous car. The U.S. Department of Transportation classifies autonomous vehicles on a scale of zero (no autonomous functions) to four (no driver necessary). For both regulatory and technological reasons, Musk's fantasy of drivers fetching their autonomous cars from across the country by 2018 seems unlikely. Much less far-fetched is the idea that the Model 3 will be capable of full autonomy, but in limited settings—which would make it a level-three vehicle under the federal system.

    Such a car would require some degree of monitoring by a driver, but under the right conditions—say, highway driving—it would allow people to mostly disengage from the task of driving in order to read, check e-mail, or watch a movie. (Some Model S drivers report being able to do so already, though from a safety standpoint they really shouldn't.) Fully autonomous highway driving would only be an interstitial step for city dwellers, but it would be very popular with suburban commuters—and it will be a major technological coup if Tesla beats Google, Nissan, and GM in the race to deliver. That said, from a commercial standpoint, the Model 3 is poised for massive success, regardless: more than three hundred and twenty-five thousand consumers have now placed deposits, amounting to fourteen billion dollars in potential sales. Autonomous or not, delivering that volume of vehicles on time, on budget, and on spec will be a challenge unto itself.

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    Source: Will the Tesla Model 3 Be the First Truly Self-Driving Car?

    Mercedes-Benz USA chief on the threat of electric cars

    Mercedes' new CEO finds Southern hospitality in Atlanta

    Mercedes-Benz USA reveals design for $100M Atlanta headquarters

    Dietmar Exler

    Elon Musk may take issue with Dietmar Exler.

    The electric vehicle poses an existential threat to the gasoline car — however, that threat is "more than a decade" away, Exler, Mercedes-Benz USA's freshly minted chief told me at an Atlanta Press Club event Tuesday.

    Dietmar Exler

    The electric vehicle market has gotten turbocharged in recent years by Nissan on the low end and Elon Musk's Tesla Motors on the high end. With the Leaf, Nissan has delivered a relatively affordable electric car. With the Model S, Tesla has proven electric cars can go faster and be more fun to drive.

    The auto industry is catching up as General Motors, Honda, BMW, Mercedes and Audi have announced electric vehicle rollouts.

    A few technology and market realities will keep electric vehicles from going mainstream anytime soon, Exler said in a free-ranging interview on his industry's forthcoming disruption.

    Two decades ago, there was much talk of electric vehicles becoming common a decade from then, Exler said. It didn't quite happen as battery capacity didn't increase as fast as everybody anticipated.

    Battery capacity-to-price ratio would have to narrow for mass adoption of electric vehicles.

    "It's all well and nice to (offer) an electric vehicle," Exler said. "But, if the average consumer can't afford it, we have a problem."

    The other challenge keeping automakers from fully embracing EVs is the used-car market for such vehicles.

    "Would you be comfortable buying a four-year-old electric car that might not have a warranty on the battery (the most expensive part in an EV)?"

    Despite reservations around electrics, Mercedes is "pushing in that direc tion," first with hybrid vehicles. The automaker also sells a B-class all-electric in 10 EV-friendly U.S. states. Mercedes will offer an EV fleet in two-to-three years, Exler said.

    Like Musk, Exler sees autonomous — or self-driving — vehicles accelerating toward the auto industry.

    Vehicles, such as Tesla's Model S sedan, already offer autonomous capability geared for Interstate driving. Using sensors and radars, the cars can autonomously maintain driving distance, change lanes, follow curves and brake without driver intervention.

    Mercedes' new E-class, which will begin selling in June, is licensed for autonomous driving in Nevada, Exler said.

    "It's a production car," he said. "It's not the Silicon Valley cars with 15 sensors on top that look like (they're) from Mars."

    A world of fully autonomous vehicles cruising around cities with no one in the driver seat, however, will have to wait until industry regulators catch up, Exler noted.

    "Our cars — the E-Class and S-class — can do autonomous driving today," Exler said. "The law does not allow us to do it."

    Urvaksh Karkaria covers Technology.


    Source: Mercedes-Benz USA chief on the threat of electric cars

    Wednesday, April 13, 2016

    Tesla Model 3 electric cars selling — mostly to techies

    DETROIT (AP) — Demand for Tesla Motors' new Model 3 has been eye-popping, with consumers pre-ordering about $13.7 billion worth of the electric sedans nearly two years before they go on sale.

    Yet experts aren't yet ready to proclaim it's a tipping point with mainstream America moving from burning gasoline to charging batteries.

    The reason? Most of the 325,000 people worldwide who put down $1,000 deposits are tech-savvy, environmentally conscious early adopters who see Tesla as an innovative brand that meets their needs.

    The $35,000 price tag and the Model 3's 215-mile range are important, but the brand's tech image and CEO Elon Musk's success in cars, rockets and solar panels are the main drivers.

    "We're tech people. I want integration with my phone," says Charles Butler, a 40-year-old manager with a cloud computing company in Austin, Texas, who was among the first to make an order. "Musk and Tesla, that's what they do with their customer experience."

    [Native Advertisement]

    Researchers say other automakers' electric cars haven't caught on because their range is limited to around 100 miles. And even General Motors' Chevrolet Bolt, which will go more than 200 miles per charge and is priced similarly to the Model 3, won't attract a frenzy of buyers because Chevy doesn't have Tesla's tech image, they say.

    Surveys by the University of California Davis Institute of Transportation Studies and by Carnegie Mellon University show that Butler is a pretty typical Tesla buyer. The brand is well-known in the U.S., even among those who don't plan to buy electrics. Tesla buyers always have rated cutting-edge features — huge touch screens, freeway autopilot and over-the-air software updates — as paramount, said Tom Turrentine, director of electric and hybrid vehicle research at UC Davis.

    Early electric cars didn't have those features, although the new Bolt will have some of them.

    "There's a big overlap in people who think about the future and green technology," Turrentine said. "Tesla is really sitting right on that."

    Surveys by Carnegie Mellon show that getting from the tech savvy to regular folks will take a lot. Most U.S. consumers don't even know what an electric car does, said Jeremy Michalek, a professor of engineering and public policy. Electric cars currently are only 1 percent of U.S. sales.

    "Winning over the enthusiast is just fundamentally different from winning over mainstream consumers," he said.

    Turrentine doesn't expect similar demand for the Bolt, which is due to hit showrooms late this year. Chevy won't comment on the Tesla orders, and it isn't taking advance orders for the Bolt. Instead, it will rely on GM's vast dealer network, high owner satisfaction with the Volt plug-in hybrid, and Internet connectivity to drum up Bolt sales, a spokeswoman said.

    That may not work well, however. UC Davis research shows that when asked to name rechargeable cars, "hardly anybody can name a Volt, but they can name a Tesla," Turrentine said.

    Surveys also show that GM and other automakers don't have the tech panache of Tesla.

    "I just do not believe when you're a large automaker, you're necessarily going to solve for that," says Butler.

    Yet Tesla is about to face more competition. Sam Abuelsamid, senior analyst for the Navigant research firm, said other automakers are scrambling to unveil 200-mile electric cars in the same price range.

    More established automakers likely will have a reliability advantage over Tesla, which has struggled with quality problems on its current models, he said.

    Still, all automakers face a "chasm" that must be bridged between early adopters and the public for electric cars to be in every driveway, Turrentine said. It will take years of influence from early buyers to change a country in which gas-powered pickup trucks are the top-selling vehicles, he said. Also needed will be more battery breakthroughs for lower costs, and continued government incentives, he said.

    There are other problems that could make it hard for Musk to satisfy his orders. The volume — which surprised even Musk — will be difficult for Tesla to produce. The company has been a niche manufacturer, selling just 110,000 cars since it started manufacturing at a California plant in 2008. Even Musk seems to be wondering. On Twitter, he said he may have to rethink production plans and open a factory in Europe.

    Tesla also has a history of missing deadlines for previous models, and delays could turn away some buyers. Last week, the company blamed parts shortages from a supply company for production shortfalls with the new Model X SUV and pledged to make sure the same thing doesn't happen with the Model S.

    "After a while you have a pattern that things get delayed," said Standard & Poor's analyst Efraim Levy.

    Another possible bug is the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric car buyers, which could reach its 200,000 limit for Tesla buyers and be phased out before many of those who ordered can get it. Tesla says in a statement that it will make sure customers know when the credits expire.

    "We build our vehicles, including Model 3, to offer compelling value without any incentives," the statement said.


    Source: Tesla Model 3 electric cars selling — mostly to techies