After years of promises and potential, 2017 may be the year alternative-fueled vehicles gain some real traction in the car market.
And attendees at the San Diego International Auto Show, which opens Thursday at the Convention Center, can get their first peek at some of the models upon which policymakers as well as car makers have pinned so much hope.
"It's going to be very telling," said Jeremy Acevedo, pricing and industry analyst for Edmunds.com. "As to where this technology is, how it's resonating with shoppers out there, I think 2017 is going to be a very strong barometer."
Among some of the alternative-fueled vehicles on display include the newly-designed Toyota Prius — called the Prius Prime — and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles such as the Toyota Mirai and the brand new Honda Clarity.
The market has even gone upscale, with the likes of BMW, Mercedes and Cadillac offering prime spots on the convention floor for their own clean-energy cars. The Cadillac CTS hybrid plug-in has a starting price of just over $75,000.
But the all-electric Chevrolet Bolt EV may be the "it" car at this year's auto show. Last month, the Bolt was named Motor Trend magazine's Car of the Year for 2017.
Not to be confused with the Chevy Volt, the plug-in hybrid on the market since December 2010, the Bolt EV is now available at dealerships in California and Oregon.
Electric vehicles — known as EVs for short — have garnered a lot of attention in recent years but not too many sales in comparison to conventional, internal-combustion vehicles.
They make up less than 1 percent of the nation's sales in new vehicles. Even in tech-obsessed California, plug-ins represent just 3 percent of new sales.
Two of the biggest obstacles for EVs? Their sticker price and "range anxiety" — the fear that the car's charge will conk out and leave a driver stranded.
The Bolt EV is designed to address those complaints.
It has a baseline price of $37,495 and, with federal and state incentives, the cost to consumers goes down below $30,000. That's a price range that Chevy hopes will lure middle-class buyers, not just the wealthy who can afford Teslas that can easily top $100,000 with all the high-tech bells and whistles.
Tesla is also poised to unveil its own affordably-priced electric car. Elon Musk's company has taken about 300,000 deposits on its Model 3, priced in the mid-$30,000 range, but the car is not scheduled to roll out until late 2017.
The Bolt EV's range promises to go 238 miles between charges. That's more than twice the distance of most other EVs on the market.
"In the past, the first thing you did when you got into your EV was worrying: Where is my next charger? Will I make it to my destination?" said Shad Balch, product specialist for Chevrolet, who rolled up on the eve of the auto show Wednesday in a cranberry-colored Bolt after cruising from Los Angeles.
"So the fact that you can get at least 238 miles of range in this car means you can go so much farther without having to worry at all," Balch said. "For many people, they'll just plug in once a week if this car is their daily commuter."
But the road to EV heaven hasn't been smooth.
Despite a federal tax credit of $7,500 and California rebates that range from $1,500 to $5,000 — not to mention stickers that allow single motorists in cars that meet the state's definition of of zero-emissions vehicles to drive in the HOV lanes — the sales of clean-energy cars in California have been flat.
Instead, car buyers have spent more of their dollars on light trucks and sports utility vehicles.
For more than two years, the price of gasoline in California has dropped well below the $4 a gallon mark.
"That doesn't do a whole lot to incentivize people to go out and and buy a car that has a plug and that embrace that (EV) technology now," said Acevedo.
In addition, the miles-per-gallon standards for crossover SUVs have improved to such a degree they have become competitive from a fuel-efficiency standpoint to passenger cars.
"They're definitely not the massive, gas-guzzling SUVs you remember from decades ago," Acevedo said. "They're smaller, more nimble and hugely more efficient."
That poses a problem when it comes to meeting the lofty goals for electric, plug-in and hybrid vehicles set by California's policymakers.
Legislators in Sacramento have insisted the state get its emissions of greenhouse gases 40 percent below the 1990 levels in the next 13 years.
Gov. Jerry Brown wants 1.5 million zero-emissions vehicles on the state's highways by 2025, the same year the California Air Resources Board has mandated that clean cars make up at least 15.4 percent of all vehicles sold in the state — five times more than the current level.
Under the Air Resources Board's zero-emissions program, manufacturers are given credits tied to the number and types of clean vehicles sold. If a manufacturer falls short, it can buy credits from car makers that exceed the quotas.
Critics say the rules are unrealistic, forcing car makers to lose thousands on each zero-emission vehicle they sell, thus making each clean vehicle essentially a "compliance car" to keep them in the good graces of the Air Resources Board.
Balch said Chevy is committed to making the Bolt EV a success.
"If it was a compliance car we wouldn't give it a 238-mile range," Balch said. "This is a car we intend to sell nationwide and it's priced at a level where everyone can afford it."
Tesla does not have a spot reserved at the San Diego auto show because the company skips over the car dealer process, dealing with potential buyers directly. The auto show is presented by the New Car Dealers Association of San Diego.
With the growing number of alternative-fueled vehicles entering the market like the Tesla Model 3 and the Chevy Bolt EV, there's talk in the auto industry that 2017 will be viewed as a major test.
"I think we'll have critical years for years to come," said Kevin Leap, director of the San Diego International Auto Show. "The distance you can drive on one charge is really improving, the battery technology is improving, particularly in California where we're so environmentally conscious."
San Diego International Auto Show
San Diego Convention Center
Thursday 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Friday 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Saturday 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Sunday 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Monday 10 a.m. to 7 p.m.
More than 400 vehicles displayed
Admission:
Age 13 and older: $12
Military with ID: $9
Seniors 62 and older: $9
Children 7-12: $8
Children 1-6 when accompanied by an adult: Free
rob.nikolewski@sduniontribune.com
(619) 293-1251 Twitter: @robnikolewski
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Source: Electric vehicles look to give the San Diego Auto Show a bolt
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