BMW Gears Up to Mass Produce Electric Cars by 2020

FRANKFURT/MUNICH — 

Germany's BMW is gearing up to mass produce electric cars by 2020 and will to have 12 different models by 2025, it said on Thursday, as traditional manufacturers race to catch up with U.S. electric car pioneer Tesla.

Car buyers shunned electric vehicles because of their high cost and limited operating range until Tesla unveiled the Model S in 2012, a car that cracked the 200 mile (322 km) range barrier on a single charge.

Since then, big advances in battery technology and a global crackdown on pollution in the wake of Volkswagen's diesel scandal have raised pressure on carmakers to speed up development of zero-emission alternatives.

BMW, which launched the i3 electric car in 2013, said it was now readying its factories to mass produce electric cars by 2020 if demand for battery driven vehicles takes off.

"By 2025, we will offer 25 electrified vehicles — 12 will be fully-electric," Chief Executive Harald Krueger told journalists in Munich, adding the electric cars would have a range of up to 700 km (435 miles).

It marks a significant foray by a major manufacturer into electrification. BMW, which includes the Mini and Rolls-Royce brands and sold 2.34 million cars last year, announced the move on the day smaller rival Jaguar said it would offer electric or hybrid variants of all its models by 2020.

On Wednesday, Nissan unveiled a new version of its Leaf electric vehicle in its latest move to take on Tesla, the U.S. firm co-founded by Elon Musk that sold 83,922 vehicles last year.

Rolls-Royce

Traditional carmakers have been slow to embrace the electric vehicle market because it remains unprofitable, largely due to the cost of batteries which make up between 30 percent and 50 percent of the cost of an electric vehicle.

A battery pack with 60 kWh capacity and 500 km range costs around $14,000 today, compared with a gasoline engine that costs around $5,000. Add to that the $2,000 for the electric motor and the inverter, and the gap is even wider.

But capacity investments into the battery sector may bring down costs of electric vehicles to a "tipping point" when they reach parity with combustion-engine equivalents some time between 2020 and 2030, according to analysts at Barclays.

With cities threatening to ban combustion-engine vehicles or to tax diesel cars more heavily, the total cost of ownership of electric cars could drop below their combustion-engine equivalents, and Europe could become a 100 percent pure battery electric vehicle market by 2035, according to analysts at ING.

The Frankfurt motor show, starting next week, will be used by BMW to unveil a new four-door electric car positioned between the i3 city car and the i8 hybrid sportscar, Krueger said.

"We will be increasing the share of electrified models across all brands and model series. And, yes, that also includes the Rolls-Royce brand and BMW M vehicles," he said.

German rivals will also be showing electric cars, with Daimler's Mercedes-Benz brand unveiling the EQA, a concept mass market electric car, Volkswagen taking the wraps off the ID Crozz.

Aside from vehicle cost, a key obstacle to making electric cars popular is the amount of time it takes to recharge, and a lack of charging stations.

London needs to spend 10 billion euros ($12 billion) to get charging infrastructure to a level where retail buyers can practically own an electric car, consultancy AlixPartners has said. Almost none of that spending has been earmarked so far.

($1 = 0.8331 euros)

Source: BMW Gears Up to Mass Produce Electric Cars by 2020

Skoda’s first electric car hits all the e-car targets and accelerates beyond competitors on looks and price — and it’s available in three years

I'M at a warehouse in Prague with a minder called Stanislav.

He's a big, bald bear and he's shadowing me everywhere.

Feeling like a million dollars? This car will be affordable when it rolls off the production line

Why? Because I'm driving this £1million concept car — one of one — just days before its European debut at the Frankfurt Motor Show. And it can't get wet. Or damaged. Or I'll get damaged.

At ease, Stan, my friend. Relax. I'll be good. I'll go steady with her.

This is the Skoda Vision E, the basis for Skoda's first all-electric car coming in 2020. By 2025, Skoda will have FIVE all-electric vehicles — one smaller than this, one bigger, a small car, and maybe even a rear-wheel drive sports car.

A halo car. Think 110R coupe from the Seventies — but electric. Have I lost you? Google it.

Also by 2025, Skoda wants one in four sales to be plug-in hybrid or pure electric drive.

So, what of Vision E?

The Vision E has a sleek look to it

VISION OF THE FUTURE this Skoda is an ambitious project

It's an all-wheel-drive SUV with a 310-mile range and wireless charging via a floor panel. It has two electric motors producing 306hp — that's fast — and a 112mph top speed.

And, as per "The Rules" of all next-gen cars, it is zero-emissions, it can drive itself on motorways, park itself — and it's fully connected. In other words, it's always online and communicating with other cars.

24 EYES . . . Blinking screens put everything on display

You'll find . . . eight, nine, ten, 11 . . . 12 electronic screens inside Vision E. Yep. TWELVE.

To go with back-lit door panels, crystal glass trim and a glass roof as big as Kew Gardens. It glows like Currys' shop window at night.

I very much doubt all those screens will make the 2020 production car. Or the roof for that matter. Or the four swivel seats. Or the wooden floor. Or the electric rear-hinged doors.

But the clean-cut exterior shape of the car won't change much. And please keep those full-width LED lights.

The designers want LEDs to have the same effect as chrome on classic cars

As design boss Karl Neuhold says: "Light is the new chrome."

And because there are no oily bits (no engine, no transmission tunnel), it has a flat floor and passengers have lots of S, P, A, C and E.

A Skoda trademark which, alongside value and reliability, will happily continue with the switch to electric.

Skoda EV boss Dr Guido Haak said: "I like Elon Musk and Tesla. They are the No1 risk-takers. But we are not competing with them. We are competing with the cars people drive today.

"Value for money is part of our DNA and our electric cars will have sufficient real-world range, easy-to-use charging technology, good design and versatility."

From Vision to reality in three years.Expect prices around £30,000.

Leaf drops this Autumn

YOU pay for my opinion – so I'll tell you straight.

Nissan had an opportunity here to make the new Leaf something you'd be proud to be seen in going to footie training. Something cool and futuristic.

Something Adidas and not so orthopaedic.

IF THE SHOE FITS. . . The Nissan Leaf is a bit orthopaedic

You guessed right, dear reader. I'm a bit disappointed.

The world's best-selling electric vehicle is more practical than ever. But as boring as Jeremy Corbyn in a lift.

Back me up. Would you swap your Golf for a Leaf? No. You'd buy an eGolf.

But what if I said a Leaf goes further than an eGolf? Still eGolf. Me too. Or a Renault Zoe.

The thing is, Nissan has ignored its customers. The first-generation Leaf topped polls for satisfaction and being cheap to run – but got zero points for styling.

This second-generation Leaf has lost the "bug" lights and adopted the family nose – but it's less daring than a cheese sandwich. It needed some hot sauce. It needed some Juke love. Sadly, it looks nowt like the IDS concept.

There are positives, however. It has a bigger 40kWh battery with an official NEDC range of 235 miles. That equates to around 177 miles in the real world. The current car has a 30kWh battery. And stand by for an even bigger battery with more power and more range in 2018.

The Leaf has a bigger boot than the first model

Other positives. It's built in Sunderland. And that means it safeguards thousands of British jobs.

And it's crammed with tech. The new Leaf can park itself, drive itself in single-lane highway traffic (steer, accelerate and brake) and there's a new gizmo called "e-pedal", which lets you accelerate and brake with one pedal. Press to speed up, ease off to slow down. Release completely to stop and hold, even on hills.

New interior, bigger boot, Apple CarPlay, Nissan has sprinkled some love on pretty much everything . . . except LOOKS. A special launch-edition goes on sale in October. You'll be fine by then. It gets dark at four.

— YOU think you've got a decent van? You don't. It can't compete with the £14,200 Renault Kangoo ZE 33. Pure electric, real-world range of 124 miles, no road tax, no C-Charge, zero BiK liability, 100 per cent write down allowance, 2p a mile to run. You'll be consumed by peace and love. Out November, price excludes vodka and tonic and £49 a month battery lease.

Ten things you didn't know about Astra

SPECIAL week for our comrades at Ellesmere Port, where the FOUR MILLIONTH Vauxhall Astra has just rolled off the production line

Here's ten things you might not know about the Astra.1. The Astra replaced the Viva and was Vauxhall's first front-wheel drive car.2. One in four Brits has owned or driven an Astra.3. The height of four million Astras is the equivalent to 62,500 Big Bens.4. The name Astra derives from the Latin Astralis meaning the stars.5. The Astra has been used as a patrol car by 54 police forces.6. Not just British-built, the current Astra was designed by Brits Mark Adams and Malcolm Ward.7. The current Astra was crowned 2016 European Car Of The Year.8. Ellesmere Port builds 680 Astras a day, of which 80 per cent are exported. The factory employs 2,000 people.9. Will Smith, Margot Robbie and Warwick Davis drove an Astra on Top Gear's Star In A Reasonably Priced Car.10. There's 236 Astra Sport Tourers in that 4,000,000 photo, above. Don't believe me? Count them.

— PLEASE be upstanding for Stephen Petch, my teammate in the WD-40 Fiesta rally car. He's just been crowned 2017 BTRDA Rally champion – 25 years after his dad Steve won the same title. Legends.— VAUXHALL will top webuyanycar.com valuations by £1,000 if you part-ex for a new 67-plate car before September 30.— AIR quality. And a quote from The Economist: "Just 15 of the biggest ships emit more of the noxious oxides of nitrogen and sulphur than all the world's cars put together." Well said.

— YOU'RE late. You're always late. You rush to Sainsbury's for a few bits and a checkout girl opens just for you. Yes. Winning. Even better, those flip flops you spotted on the end aisle have been reduced again. Life's good. But hang on. Where's your purse? Balls. It's in your DS3. With your phone. So you can't use Apple Pay either. I know, use your car key. Yep, the DS3 has the UK's first contactless payment car key. You're golden.— TVR will reveal a new sports car at the Goodwood Revival tomorrow. Rear-drive, five-litre Cosworth V8.Mmmm. Mmmm.

— THERE will be much willy-waving from the Germans at Frankfurt Motor Show next week. BMW's stand is bigger than a football pitch and includes a 150-metre circuit with cars running around it. All the big reveals will be electric. BMW i5 concept. Mini E. VW I.D. Crozz1. Audi e-tron. Mercedes EQ A. And, of course, Project One – the AMG hypercar with an F1 powertrain.

Source: Skoda's first electric car hits all the e-car targets and accelerates beyond competitors on looks and price — and it's available in three years

Nissan shows Leaf electric car revamped with more range

Nissan's new Leaf electric car goes farther on a charge and comes with autonomous drive technology and single-pedal driving. But whether it can catch on with anyone but the most zealously green-minded remains to be seen.

The zero-emissions vehicle — which Japanese automaker Nissan Motor Co. unveiled in the U.S. late Tuesday and in a Tokyo suburb Wednesday — promises a range of about 400 kilometers in Japanese driving conditions or 150 miles in the U.S., before needing another charge. That's up from up to 280 kilometers or 107 miles for Leaf models on sale now.

The distances depend on driving conditions and how much other items in the car such as heating are used. Gas-engine cars generally get as much as 500 miles or 600 miles on a tank of gas.

Analysts say the biggest obstacle for electric cars' becoming more widespread is their limited range per charge. Several breakthroughs in battery technology are likely needed before they become affordable and practical for regular consumers.

Koichi Sugimoto, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo, says many automakers are selling green models because of tightening emissions regulations, especially in Europe and California, rather than because of what he called "natural sales growth."

"There really is no outstanding attractive quality about an electric vehicle," he said, noting drawbacks such as finding charging stations, as well as the time needed to charge.

That remains 40 minutes for the new Leaf, even with the quick charging. With normal charging, 16 hours would be needed for a three-kilowatt system, and eight hours at six-kilowatts.

"It's more about an effort to make a better society, so we are looking at a decade or two decades ahead," said Sugimoto.

The Leaf comes with a pedal that accelerates and slows the vehicle, depending on how much the driver pushes it, eliminating the need for a separate brake pedal.

It's a feature made possible by the switching on-and-off feature of electric gadgetry, unlike the more standard internal combustion engine, and it's already available on other electric vehicles like those from U.S. maker Tesla.

The Leaf also offers a technology not directly related to its being electric — an autonomous drive feature that Nissan calls ProPilot can be switched on during single-lane highway driving. It also parks itself, taking control of the steering, accelerating and braking, sliding into a parking spot or parallel parking.

The Leaf's restyled look is not that different from its past design, billed as sleek and aerodynamic to maximize range. The Leaf remains an important part of Yokohama-based Nissan's branding as a symbol of the company's commitment to the environment.

Other Japanese automakers have not been as bullish on electric vehicles. Toyota Motor Corp. has been more aggressive about gas-electric hybrids, exemplified in its hit Prius model, and is expanding to plug-in hybrids, as well as hydrogen-powered vehicles.

———

AP Business Writer Yuri Kageyama can be reached at https://twitter.com/yurikageyama

Her work can be found at https://www.apnews.com/search/yuri%20kageyama

Source: Nissan shows Leaf electric car revamped with more range

Could And Should Electric Cars Have Manual Transmissions?

by Jay Traugott7,113 reads

Quick answer: yes, but it doesn't make much sense.

In case you haven't noticed, the EVs you can buy today don't have, or even offer, manual transmissions. Not the Chevrolet Bolt, Nissan Leaf or any Tesla. And they likely never will, even though it's technically possible, as Engineering Explained points out. Actually, it's really not at all difficult to hook up an electric motor to a manual gearbox; it works in very much the same it does with conventional internal combustion engines. However, a manual, aside from the driving enjoyment factor, serves no purpose in an EV. None whatsoever.

Just because something can be done doesn't mean it should be – and that's the general philosophy of many automakers. More specifically, EV automakers aren't interested in manuals because there are quicker and more efficient transmissions out there.

Another issue worth pointing out is the fact that many EVs have their motors located at the wheels instead of the typical engine bay. Why direct power through a transmission only to have it returned to where it started from? Makes no sense. But we'll let Jason Fenske go into more of the intricate technical details. He can explain things much better than we can, hence the name of his YouTube channel.

Source: Could And Should Electric Cars Have Manual Transmissions?

The Uncomfortable Truth About Electric Cars

The German auto industry may finally embrace the electric car. But beyond the hype, serious issues remain before these green vehicles can save the world – or go mainstream.

Published on September 01, 2017 1:50 pm

Don't believe everythng you read about e-cars: The infrastructure isn't ready yet. Illustration: Birgit Schössow

For years, the German auto industry seemed happy to leave development of the electric car to established Asian manufacturers such as Nissan and Toyota, and to US upstart Tesla. At the time, German carmakers were in love with diesel. But now, thanks to the Dieselgate scandal and ongoing discussions about diesel bans in more than 40 German cities, electric cars are suddenly looking a lot more attractive. The result: Germans are mounting an e-car offensive, with dozens of new models set for serial production by 2025.

Despite all the hoopla, there are serious obstacles to overcome on the road to fully electric traffic: Here, seven uncomfortable truths for Germany to deal with en route to more climate-friendly mobility.

"Our electric grid isn't prepared for an electric vehicle boom."

Detlef Schulz, professor, electrical engineering, Helmut Schmidt University

Electric cars are only as environmentally fit as their power source. 

BMW calls its i3 electric cars "completely sustainable" and "free of emissions." The truth is, an electric car is only as good as the source of its juice. "The better the electricity mix, the more sensible it is to drive an electric car from an ecological perspective," says Hermann-Josef Wagner, energy economist at the Ruhr University Bochum. "In countries like China, where electricity is mainly produced with inefficient coal-fired power plants, electric cars make no ecological sense."

"More than 70 percent of all auto markets use dirty power," adds Klaus Schmitz, an auto industry expert at consultancy Arthur D. Little. In fact, the emissions produced by coal power plants are much dirtier than diesel motor fumes.

In Germany, almost one third of the country's electricity is green, produced by wind turbines and solar cells. But at the same time, more than 40 percent of the power mix comes from burning coal. That means that an electric car in Germany still produces 107 grams of CO2 per kilometer. The EU's emissions target is 95 grams.

Compare that to countries like Switzerland or Norway, where much of their electricity is hydropowered. There it makes more sense to run electric cars, says Christian Hochfeld, director of Agora Verkehrswende, the Berlin-based think tank. "Without a transformation in traffic, there will be no energy transformation," Mr. Hochfeld argues. "And vice versa."

The more electric cars, the bigger the power grid.

"Our electricity grid isn't prepared for an electric vehicle boom at all," says Detlef Schulz, professor of electrical energy systems at Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg. There are two main points to consider: Does the grid produce enough power? And will it suffer when all the electric cars in town plug in at the same time?

If all 45.8 million cars in Germany were plugged in at the same time, the country's electricity demand could be theoretically increased by more than a quarter. But what's more critical are the higher peak loads. Experst estimate that to power up a million e-cars, Germany needs 70,000 ordinary charging stations and 7,ooo additional faster-charging ones. At the end of 2016, there were only around 7,000 normal charging stations and 292 for speedy charging.

"In order to prevent our electricity grids from collapsing from several million electric cars in Germany, we'd need intelligent load management, which allows for time-delayed charging," said energy expert Mr. Schulz. A lot of electricity will be needed over a short period of time for quick recharging, but current power lines are not designed for this.

The answers include things like digitalizing the grid to better distribute power and giving energy customers a bonus for charging at times when demand is lower.

A future electric Mini ready to save the world – if it can find a charging station. Source: BMW

Battery technology is only just starting out.

Today, a vehicle's battery accounts for about 40 percent of the value of an electric car. Whoever leads in battery technology has a competitive advantage in the electromobility market. Roland Berger, the business consultancy, estimates that the price for one kilowatt hour of battery capacity will drop from €200 to €100 by 2020. Which means the price of a typical electric car battery with 60 kilowatt hours would drop from €12,000 to €6,000 – making electric cars significantly more competitive.

Loooking ahead, the price of one kilowatt hour could even fall below €100 by 2030, according to experts at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research. They also predict the energy density of batteries will double by 2030. All of this would make electromobility increasingly attractive.

However, it's important to note that battery development is in its infancy. It's light years behind microchips, where performance has multiplied exponentially and prices have declined at a similar rate. For that to happen with batteries, a whole new type of technology would be needed. That's something the Fraunhofer experts don't see happening until 2030 at the earliest.

Electric cars are only competitive thanks to state regulation.

One would think, given the number of new electric cars planned by German car manufacturers, that there's no longer any doubt that e-cars are a competitive product. After all why else would the development departments invest billions in such vehicles?

In truth, German carmakers aren't only out to fulfill demand for electric cars. They also need to comply with federal and EU regulations and escape high punitive payments. Often consumers aren't responsible for growing demand. Politicians are.

The EU Commission wants car manufacturers to reduce average CO2 emissions for their vehicles to 95 grams per kilometer by 2021. That would mean a consumption of about four liters of gasoline, or 3.5 liters of diesel per 100 kilometers (1 gallon of unleaded fuel per 62 miles).

Engineers have exhausted their efficiency options with gasoline and diesel engines. They are the physical limits. In the case of Volkswagen, the Dieselgate scandal shows that they even turned to manipulating the system to circumvent regulations.

Automakers are only too well aware, however, that cars with really clean CO2 emission counts (less than 50 grams) are to be given extra "super credits". This means German premium manufacturers can offset their relatively thirsty off-road vehicles with the help of plug-in hybrids and electric cars.

Electric cars aren't suitable for everything.

The maximum range of electric cars due to appear on the market in the coming years is expected to be around 500 kilometers (310 miles), though a range of 400 km is probably more realistic. A diesel engine could do double that. For a drive from Munich to Berlin – about 600 kilometers (373 miles) – an electric car would have to recharge at least once.

Additionally, electric cars' range is often calculated at an average speed of between 100 and 120 kilometers per hour. However, drivers on German highways move at more like 160 kilometers per hour. And that, as Tesla drivers have reported, reduces range to about 200 kilometers. That means several stops on the way to Munich, and drivers taking a gamble on whether they find a quick-charging station at the next stop.

The auto industry has tried to resolve this by developing hybrid cars and hydro-powered fuel cells. But carmakers estimate that a really useful and affordable example of the latter won't emerge until 2025. So for the time being, it seems e-cars are limited to big cities.

Electric cars won't save the auto industry's current business model.

Wherever the driving distances are short and traffic is heavy, electric is the way to go. But most people use their cars to meet a range of needs. The same car is used to commute to the office and then packed full of suitcases for a family road trip. Carmakers have been making and selling cars on that basis for years.

But the mobility of the future could look a little different. We might not own a car anymore, but we'll have an account with a car-sharing company and its fleet. If we move house, we'll hire a van from them. Off on a skiing holiday, we'll take one of their SUVs.

"Many customers will no longer own cars, just use them," predicted Thomas Frey, the American futurist.

As a result, the business model of e-cars doesn't translate to the current practice of counting vehicle sales. Car-sharing will change everything about the car business, whether it's about electric cars or not.

An electric bus charges in Hannover. Conventionally-fueled cars, bicycles and public transport trump e-cars for practicality. Source: DPA

Even with electric cars, we will have to limit our travel.

Some architects and city planners believe that in an ideal city, people should walk or ride a bicycle, because public space in cities is just too valuable to waste on cars.

A car traveling at 50 kph (31 miles per hour) occupies an area of ​​140 square meters, including safety clearance. A pedestrian takes up less than one square meter. And obviously the space a car takes up doesn't decrease just because it is electric.

On top of that, only a drastic reduction in traffic will give renewable energy a chance of meeting the energy requirements of the transport sector. Trains continue to be able to transport people and goods far more efficiently than cars or trucks.

Ultimately, there is a simple hierarchy of efficiency that electric mobility doesn't change. The most environmentally-friendly forms of transportation are, in ascending order: Train, bus, bicycle, and walking. Or staying at home.

Handelsblatt staff Lukas Bay, Markus Fasse, Astrid Dörner, Franz Hubik and Christian Rickens prepared this story, which was adapted in English for Handelsblatt Global. To contact the authors: fasse@handelsblatt.com

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Source: The Uncomfortable Truth About Electric Cars

How electric cars will change the American road trip — Conor Sen

SEPTEMBER 3 — With the long Labor Day weekend upon us, tens of millions of Americans will hit the road in an annual rite. Along the way, drivers will fill up gas tanks, grab a bite to eat, stretch their legs, perhaps stay the night at a motel. Should autonomous, electric vehicles displace traditional automobiles, this roadside economy and ecosystem will be disrupted. How and when remains to be seen.

Thanks to the construction of the interstate highway system decades ago, it's relatively easy and affordable to drive hundreds of miles for leisure or to visit friends and family. The commercial and automobile infrastructure has been built incrementally over decades to accommodate drivers and internal-combustion engines.File picture shows cars travelling north towards Los Angeles on Interstate highway 5 in San Diego, California February 10, 2016. — Reuters pic

The official rest areas and "welcome centers" often found near state lines are government-run, and explicitly prohibit commercial activities with a few exceptions like vending machines. The idea was that as the highways were being built, many businesses already existed to accommodate the commercial needs of drivers, and they wanted protection from competition. (When it comes to rest areas, protectionism still prevails.)

If businesses want to serve drivers, they're forced to buy up land near highway exits that they hope will be convenient for drivers, and set up shop there. They advertise with tall signs that can sometimes be seen for miles. Some amount of clustering often occurs, with certain highway exits offering more amenities than others. Anyone who's driven from Los Angeles to Las Vegas knows one good example: Barstow, California. Roughly the halfway point between the two cities, at the intersection of I-15 and I-40, it was destined to be the place that people stopped to go to the bathroom and get a milkshake and fuel up.

That all makes sense while humans are driving gasoline-powered vehicles. But think ahead to what will change when most automobiles are driving themselves, fuelled by batteries that meet certain standards and guided by shared software. The stops on a road trip would be less likely to be determined by a hungry driver noticing a tall sign or a low-fuel light.

Instead you'll have autonomous electric vehicles concentrated in a few dozen metro areas, from which they will depart on road trips with fully charged batteries. These vehicles might be programmed to stop, say, every 180 to 200 miles.

The companies that build roadside infrastructure can use big data to map precisely where to invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars into mega rest areas filled with banks of electric charging stations and all the amenities these drivers are looking for. And because the vehicles are autonomous they can drop passengers off at the doorstep of a centralised amenity area, charge on their own while passengers are eating or using the restroom, and then circle back once the passengers are ready to leave. Imagine a rest stop that's more like a walkable shopping district, less like an island in a vast parking lot.

It will probably be a lot more consolidated and orderly than the hodgepodge system we have today. It'll be great news for some communities that, like Barstow, can build local economies around this predictable revenue stream paid for by outsiders. But it'll be devastating for hundreds of small towns that have come to rely on the jobs and tax dollars from highway businesses that evolved to meet the less predictable needs of human drivers and gas-powered vehicles.

When fewer but larger commercial districts cater to road-trippers, maybe the land around highway exits will become the big speculative gold rush of the late 2020s.

Despite the big unknowns, some things about the great American road trip surely won't change. Are we there yet? — Bloomberg View

*Conor Sen is a Bloomberg View columnist. He is a portfolio manager for New River Investments in Atlanta.

**This is the personal opinion of the columnist.

Source: How electric cars will change the American road trip — Conor Sen

UK electric car plan could cause huge infrastructure costs in efforts to steer clear of power shortages

Britain must plough billions of pounds into new power plants, grid networks and electric vehicle charging points if it is to avoid local power shortages when a planned ban on new diesel and petrol cars begins.

Supporting millions more battery-powered vehicles over the next two decades is technically feasible, and if drivers can be persuaded to recharge them overnight – when spare power capacity is abundant – the huge infrastructure cost could be kept down.

Local networks in particular will face problems, and the country will need a range of technologies for managing consumption to meet an estimated rise of up to 15 per cent in overall demand and prevent spikes of up to 40 per cent at peak times.

"It will be a challenge and a lot of investment is required: in generating capacity, strengthening the distribution grid and charging infrastructure," said Johannes Wetzel, energy markets analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

In July, the government said it would ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans from 2040. The aim is to reduce air pollution, a source of growing public health concerns, and help Britain to cut carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 from 1990 levels – the target it has set itself.

Although some conventional cars will remain on the road, numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) could balloon to 20 million by 2040 from around 90,000 today, experts estimate. Charging them all will require additional electricity.

Britain already faces a power supply crunch in the early 2020s as old nuclear reactors come to the end of their lives and remaining coal-fired plants are phased out by 2025.

Four years ago, well before the conventional car ban was raised, the government said more than £100bn ($130bn) in investment would be needed to ensure clean, secure electricity supplies and to reduce demand.

That looks optimistic. The cost of Hinkley Point C alone, the only nuclear power station now under construction in Britain, is estimated at £19.6bn.

Gas plants are cheaper and faster to build but investment in new ones is flat, and they still produce carbon emissions. Renewable energy presents problems of matching supply and demand; solar panels for instance produce no power in the night when drivers would ideally recharge their electric cars.

Estimates vary on future numbers of electric vehicles, as well as hybrids and those powered by hydrogen fuel cells which do not require mains electricity. However, several analysts surveyed by Reuters said anything up to an extra 50 terrawatt hours (TWh) would be needed for them by 2040.

Bernstein analysts say overall demand could increase by 41-49 TWh, or 13-15 per cent of current levels. However, a 15 per cent rise would translate into a 40 per cent jump in peak demand if drivers charged their cars between 6pm and 9pm, when electricity consumption is at its highest.

This problem can be eased by encouraging charging at night, when demand is currently only about a third of during peak periods. "We do not see the transition to EVs as posing a significant stress on peak demand if charging were incentivised to happen at off-peak times," they said.

Britain has made progress in energy efficiency. Overall and peak power demand fell by around 14 per cent between 2005 and 2016, even though the economy grew by the same amount.

"There is definitely some slack in the transmission and distribution system to tolerate an increase in the peak demand," according to Bernstein.

Its "extreme scenario" projection of a 40 per cent rise in peak demand equates to 24 gigawatts (GW). But National Grid, which operates the transmission system, has said the rise in peak demand can be kept to 5 GW if there is smart charging and time-of-use electricity tariffs.

Such encouragement of off-peak EV charging by making power cheaper than at peak times of the day will be essential.

"A very large peak demand could be the outcome if other things don't happen, such as smart grids, smart charging and energy storage, although we expect these technology solutions to be developed to support increasing power demand within sensible peak levels," said Richard Sarsfield-Hall, director at Poyry Management Consulting.

While nationally there may be some slack, local grids and distribution networks could feel the pinch. A trial by Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks found that uncontrolled EV charging would double the usual domestic load to 2 kilowatts (kW) when using a 3.5 kW charger. More powerful chargers would exacerbate the load strain further.

The company's head of asset management and innovation, Stewart Reid, said up to 30 per cent of its local networks could experience problems such as power loss if 40-70 per cent of its customers have EVs, based on 3.5 kW chargers.

Spreading out charging through the night could save around £2.2bn of expenditure in replacing or upgrading cables or transformers, he added.

Capacity problems could also start in the home. National Grid says that drivers charging their cars at home might not be able to use items such as kettles, ovens and immersion heaters at the same time without tripping their house's main fuse. "The house electricity supply is one 'pinch point'," it said in a background article.

The piece raised another difficulty: it estimated that 43 per cent of households have no off-street parking, meaning drivers could not recharge their cars overnight in their garage or driveway as they slept in their homes.

An alternative is more public power points at supermarkets, allowing cars to be charged while their owners shop inside. However, few drivers would probably want to buy groceries in the dead of night, the best time for easing grid loads.

Even if the grid can bear the burden, increasing charging points from the current 13,000 won't be cheap.

 "The UK by 2040 needs 1-2.5 million new charging points. An average public charging point costs 25-30,000 euros so it would need to invest 33-87bn euros from now until 2040," said Wood Mackenzie's Wetzel.

All but one of Britain's existing nine nuclear plants, which can together produce around 9 GW, are set to close by 2030 unless their lives are extended. On top of this, 12 GW of coal capacity will shut by 2025.

At the end of last year, gas-fired capacity totalled 32 GW and the Government has said more such plants could help fill the gap left by coal. However, weak wholesale power prices have stunted new development.

Britain's largest gas plant to open for three years, at 884 MW, came online last year in Manchester at a cost over £700m. But plans for a 2-GW gas plant nearby have stalled as the developer struggled to find investment for the £800m project.

One risk is that by using this fossil fuel to meet extra power demand, Britain could end up emitting more greenhouse gases in charging EVs than conventional cars do already.

Norway has proportionately the largest EV fleet in the world, and in January they accounted for 37.5 per cent of new car sales. However, the country relies on carbon-free hydropower for almost all electricity supplies.

The government has projected that almost 140 GW of generation capacity is needed by 2035 to replace ageing plants and as electricity demand increases. This is around 30 GW higher than current levels.

Sources could include onshore and offshore wind, gas, biomass, nuclear and power links with Europe.

But Britain has struggled to get nuclear projects built, mainly due to the high costs. EDF's 3.2 GW Hinkley Point C plant is expected to be operational by 2025 at the earliest.

Much of the necessary investment will fall on the private sector. But experts say the state, including energy market regulator Ofgem, must ensure the country achieves a reliable mix of power sources and builds infrastructure such as more interconnectors. These links with continental Europe allow the import and export of power to match supply and demand.

"If we get an increase in renewables, interconnectors, some new gas and nuclear (plants), we can get the power required, but you need the government and Ofgem to help deliver that," said Simon Virley, UK head of power and utilities at KPMG.

"And there is a question mark over localised pinch points and grid stability issues," he added.

Reuters 

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Source: UK electric car plan could cause huge infrastructure costs in efforts to steer clear of power shortages